Baseball Update

Since I posted the questions and they are to some degree of interest for potential readers, here's Bryan Smith from Baseball Prospectus on Michigan baseball and Zach Putnam:

"colintj (ann arbor): I watched a decent number of Michigan games last year and came to the conclusion that Maloney must be recruiting sinkerballers specifically. They really seemed to focus on having strong defense up the middle and taking advantage of the fact that getting the ball up in the air in the Big Ten is a difficult feat. Any thoughts? Also, it was my estimation that Putnam is a much better pitching prospect than hitting. Do I have it about right? Where would he go in the draft if he were just a hitter? And how about Recknagel?

Bryan Smith: My thought is that is a very astute observation, Colin. I was privy to some batted ball numbers from the Wolverines last year, and the numbers (and scouting reports) certainly back up what you're saying. Putnam has one of the best sinkers in the nation. Mike Wilson and Michael Powers and even Chris Fetter all show GB-FB numbers well over one. I had a call into Michigan today and I'm hoping to talk to Rich Maloney this week about his first weekend and upcoming trip to Tempe, and I'll absolutely ask him that and report back. I will say that if sinkers are their preference on the recruiting trail, they'll also need to keep getting players like Justin Christian for infield defense.

colintj (ann arbor): Also, it was my estimation that Putnam is a much better pitching prospect than hitting. Do I have it about right? Where would he go in the draft if he were just a hitter? And how about Recknagel?

Bryan Smith: Question was too loaded, I had to split it in two. You're absolutely right, Zach is a much better pitching prospect than a hitter, though he didn't pitch last weekend and certainly his bat led them to a series sweep over Villanova. I hate to speculate where Zach would go without talking to scouts. He'd be a guy that profiled as a right fielder because of arm strength and athleticism, but he only offers gap power. He'd be a bit of a tweener, and to throw a complete guess out there, probably go in the 8-12 round area."

Hey not bad right? A career as an MLB scout is now an open possibility! Also: Putnam has been tagged by general consensus to go in and around the late first/supplemental round thanks to his heavy sinker. He's a legit #1 starter to match up with aces like Brian Matusz of San Diego and, as he did last year, against David Price and Vandy. If you're in a2, get your visits in, since Zach's almost a cinch to be gone and could possibly be the first starter Michigan has had in the big leagues since Jim Abbott and...Scott Kameniecki apparently. Thank you baseball-reference.

Notre Dame Did What They Do.

Which is to say they lost, 3-2. It was an incredible game and we came out on top despite something of a lackluster effort. Yost Built's recap is, as always, worth a read. I should make a note of linking more, but I doubt there's someone that comes here first. He could use the google juice, though.

As for game specifics, the first period went very poorly by any measure. We looked flat and had trouble getting through the neutral zone due to ND's trapping and aggressive forecheck. They're good and do more or less what they did last year. Jackson's work, both as a recruiter and as a game coach, is clearly paying dividends. Our struggles were certainly in part due to the fact that we haven't seen anyone as committed to such a system with the talent to go with it.

I thought Billy was doing a poor job with his positioning, as he would often move to cover the opposite side of the goal without making it all the way to the post with his pad. A team with more offensive fire power would have made him pay and as it was the team ceded two bad goals. The first was the result of Mitera redirecting on an attempted block. Billy had the shot covered, but Mark's intrusion lifted the puck over Sauer's weak side shoulder and in. Mitera gets a pass because that's the third even strength goal he's been on the ice for...but damn. What a way to start the game.

The second goal, scored by White, was the result of our weak side defender not beating his man down the ice. I think it was Scooter, but I can't remember (and I don't have the benefit of going back with some DVR). In any case, he had an up-and-down game characterized by some mental mistakes to go with strong skating and a solid physical presence. He's still very clearly a freshman, but you don't have to squint too hard to see him as a top liner for this team sooner or later.

Speaking of sketchy defending, Langlais had a poor game. He made a number of critically bad passes that led to rushes or killed chances in our offensive end. Passing has been the strongest part of his game, so I think the ND pressure was getting to him.

On the other hand, the freshmen forwards did it again. Line after line, they gave a ton of hustle. As Packer notes, Rust and Hagelin on the same line is hell for other forwards. They finish checks and never give up and have the speed to turn the hustle into goals (that being the big difference between them and Fardig, God love him). And that doesn't even address the hero of the game, Louie Caporusso. The USCHO recap mentions some missed opportunities, but none specifically come to mind. In any case, he was similarly high-tempo and his speed and puckhandling were responsible for negotiating a lot of tight spaces in the neutral zone.

The second period was far more successful and we adapted to the pressure with specific tactical measures. On our breakout, we had been funneling everything to one side, which works fine when the team you're playing against doesn't trap on the sidelines. Without a backside trailer or a deep forward, you end up with no space and playing a lot of dump and chase. Red had them switch it up and all of a sudden, we were finding passes and getting odd-man rushes. Excellent coaching AND excellent execution. Going into the game, I thought our passing would be too much for their trapping this year (certainly not the case last year) and that proved to be the case once we adapted. After losing the shots battle in the first, we won both the second and the third. More subjectively, I'd say the quality of our chances was higher too.

The third period was fairly back and forth as I recall it, but Billy had gotten the lazy positioning out of him, so he stoned any chances. We had some energy lags, largely because of the major penalty that had to be killed off, plus a number of other seemingly bad calls. Someone else who saw this more closely can tell me what they thought, but the crowd turned in a huge way against Hall. He got booed for a long, long time. It looked like ND was flopping their collective asses off and that major had our best on the ice in order to kill it. That meant we went through subsequent periods of lagging energy, trying to recover from the PK. The number of minutes would have been even except for the (as I saw it) very iffy major.

The crowd deserves mention because we showed why the hockey crowd is the best around. Michigan's best, but probably anybody's best. It doesn't matter how much we're down, the crowd always has life, rarely boos its own team (if ever) and in general is funny and positive. By the end, everyone was utterly ecstatic and I don't think anyone has their voice. It was as much fun as I've had in a long time. It's why I go.

GLI Championship Game Notes

I guess I'll just do notes after every period. I can't imagine anyone would be following along with an unscheduled live blog. Here goes.

First Period

I picked the game up 2 minutes in, so I doubt I missed anything too critical.

-Llewellyn showed exactly why he was initially so well regarded and then saw his stock fell. He mixed in nice stick handling with poor decisions and general fumbling. I'm pretty sure he's just not on top of the speed of the game yet. Tristin in a microcosm: took a loose puck from the offensive blue line, deked a defender and came in across the goal for a look...only to try to beat the goalie too. Nolan poked the puck and Llewellyn got called for charging when he couldn't hold up. Not sure how great the call was (the goalie challenged, plus he was on the puck...), but it underlined his pluses and minuses at this point. He looks like a 4 year sort who could have some great years if he figures it out. In the very least, there's upside.

-Tech seems to have adopted Providence's strategy from the game previous. They are putting shots on goal trying to test Billy without any real development. Most of their decent chances came off rebounds and loose pucks. They have very little offensive skill and so far remind me of OSU. We might lose tonight, but we probably win 7 of 10, given the chance. Billy is just so much stronger and confident in his judgment of the angles. I haven't learned not to cringe every time a shot goes on goal, but he looks technically sound to me.

-On the other hand, we've had a ton of nice chances from between the circles. Porter and Kolarik especially have broken through, nearly at will. We haven't finished yet and part of that is coming back to earth after netting practically every opportunity last night. The nearly even shot total doesn't at all describe the quality of the respective chances. Nolan has stood up and made a number of very nice saves. If he keeps it up, it's going to be a close one. We won't be able to wear them down, as we aren't nearly as fast or big without Rust, Patch, Summers and Hagelin.

Second Period

-What a chippy stick holding team. We are all over their goal, but they are all over us. Any time the puck gets close, it seems like each Husky reaches for the nearest stick and grabs hold. What a night for Shegos to swallow his whistle. Well, that's not entirely accurate. And it's been a good game. It's just frustrating to see Tech taking advantage of the missing speed and strength. Okay, I'll stop complaining. Hyarr.

-Hooray! Shegos is starting to be Shegos. After giving us one on a Palushaj dive (I don't condone it...but we got a 5-3 out of it. I'll call it "smart"), Kolarik got put in the box for (not) hooking.

-The pace picked up in this period, but both goaltenders stayed strong. Blame the shooters or credit the goalies? Not sure. Porter has missed from point blank twice now and Kolarik has had some decent opportunities himself. But neither is racking up huge shot totals and in fact no one has more than 2 shots according to the CSTV Gametracker. So it's at least in part the Tech defenders keeping Porter and Kolarik from launching their shots. Kolarik, especially, has been relatively quiet.

-The pace picked up, but the score still hasn't turned in Michigan's favor. The announcers noted that the 3rd and 4th lines hardly saw any minutes in the second. It worked to the extent that we got to play more like a full squad, but I wonder if Red shot his bullet that period. Caporusso, for one, doesn't seem like he's got his legs yet, though he's certainly been feisty. We definitely missed him.

-Can Nolan really keep this up? He's playing well above his true talent level if you presume that the stats indicate such (and, as you might expect, I do). Hopefully Red will be able to keep the top lines out there and at full speed, but I don't think they've had to carry the load like this before. In the very least, this isn't the Everyone Contributes! kind of game last night was.

Third Period

-WHOOOO! Billy came up huge and on his glove side! Shelast snuck behind the defense and got a breakaway that Billy nabbed out of midair. Sweeeeeeeet.

-Tech is coming out firing and we had to put our first line on the bench. Just as I type that Kolarik takes one in and circles around and gets one off. Damn Nolan's toe. Pure speed by Chad there. Quality!

-Penalty coming up. Let's see if it's actually a penalty. Another hooking call and I didn't really see what was called. I'll take it though.

-Lackluster powerplay. Kampfer whiffs on a slapper and the puck clears. Sigh. He's had an off game. I think Red has been reining in the defenders counting on the Tech counterattack. Shelast's one big opportunity came when we fell asleep and lost track of him. The upshot, I think, has been a less aggressive and confident Kampfer. In any case, offensively he's struggled a bit.

-Miller, by the way, has been very quiet. I'm kind of disappointed he hasn't asserted himself in the kids' absence.

-Powerplay to Michigan, drawn by Palushaj. Decent set up, but led to nothing and now we're scrambling to set it back up. Clearance with 30 seconds left will just about do it. 6:24 left.

-General back and forth, I'd lazily call it up until now, with 1:27 left we've got a power play. Aaaaaaaand Miller misses off a great pass from Porter? He's killing me right now. That was the last best chance and now we're going to OT.


taste the sad, Tim Miller

First OT

At some point, one of these great chances has to go in right?

-Okay, here goes. So far we're doing well, but haven't really set anything up. Pretty sure we came out with the second line of forwards.

-Scooter made a nice choice to get back when he saw a breakout possibly in the works.

-Turnover fielded by Palushaj and made a great touch pass to Miller, who was tripped one on one with the goalie. How is that not a penalty shot? What's the definition? I don't know, but that's got to be worth more than 2 minutes. Damn IT. Credit to Miller there though.

-Louie is playing very hard right now, so maybe I'm wrong about his legs. Though I'm not sure how many minutes he saw earlier.

-Oh fab. Winnett with a bad idea: let's board! 4 on 4 and then Tech gets a powerplay for about 1:20. And we killed it pretty easily.

-And Porter and Malakov in a very minor tiffle. That should have been a noncall, but both are in the box.

-Scooter's definitely playing well. The announcers said earlier that he's +6 in his last 5. Very nice for a defenseman who's not especially offensive minded.

-Porter came out of the box and snuck behind the defense, took a pass and hit Nolan in the shoulder. Dang.

-Billy with a brilliant save on a one timer. What a read. They're going after his glove and he's just not wilting. Regardless of the outcome, Billy has officially announced his presence with authority. Ya done good, kid.

-Porter looks like he's skating a little slow now. Don't blame him, as every time he's on the ice it seems like they commit 4 to him in the zone. Maybe we'll see Winnett wind up and blast one. That's a bit of a non sequitur, but that's what I'm feeling.

-Porter in again after he deked his defender and got to the inside, but couldn't beat the second and we've got a face in their zone. Caporusso got a wrister off as the faceman, which was a pretty impressive feat. Nolan stood strong though.

-Tech's chances right now are mostly off our inability to win the puck sometimes. They are grabbing even more now (it IS possible!), but to far less effect. Play is going our way and they look tired. We're starting to beat the pass to its intended Husky. Shelast is dangerous though.

-PORTER AGAIN STONED GAAAAAAAAH. Inches from a goal. Nolan just nicked it with his glove and it popped up and landed on his arm. He covered.

-20 seconds left in the first OT and I cannot believe that we haven't scored. Thoroughly frustrating. Packer really lucked out with that Northwest flight deal. Must be a great game to be at. Aaaand we're on to the second OT.

Second OT

-Just to update, Billy has now made 87 consecutive saves in the tournament. Including the 8 he made in his start against Bowling Green, that's 95 in a row. Not to shabby for a guy I had all but written off. I think the only caveat I made was about his age and its certainly a notable point. But all the credit in the world to Blackburn if he's responsible.

-Tech hit the post with one, apparently. Looked like it was another Sauer save.

-WHOOOOOOO! FINALLY Redirect by...someone. It came out of nowhere. Turnbull it was on a great redirection from Scooter! W00T! Finally take a GLI after quite the drought. That was quick.

-Whatever awards go to the best player in the tournament, it better go to Billy. He was absolutely outstanding and with a goalie like this, we can beat anyone. And the MVP award did go to Billy. It's hard to overstate what a change has taken place. Hooray Billy!

Anything else? I'm pretty sure I got most everything. I wasn't expecting to see such a great game, but I'm damn happy to have. Especially considering the result.

Getting Familiar With Rich Rodriguez!

My first reaction to Rodriguez's hiring was one of disbelief and then of a beaming warm feeling. It was like, "Holy shit! Significant Value Over Brady Hoke!" But then I reflected that I had always been sort of dismissive of West Virginia, because of their crappy conference and, probably, a jealousy toward their progressive thinking coach. The result, though, is that I really don't know much about how Rich Rodriguez coaches, other than by having guys with jet packs take hand offs 60 yards to the house. Using, no doubt, one of those newfangled spread option-type offenses. All I'd seen were 15 second Sports Center clips.

So I scrambled for evidence and found the terribly abridged version 2006 Sugar Bowl on iTunes. It's basically just 15 minute long SportsCenter bit, complete with cuts to spinning logos, so I can't say it's the best introduction possible, but I want to go over my thoughts having watched it and hopefully tie it all back in to an estimated VOBH score.

In General There is a lot of Beilein in what Rich Rodriguez is doing. He realizes that he doesn't have access to much size at all nor overwhelming speed. He's lucky right now to have Noel Divine to add to White and Slaton, but the overwhelming majority of his players are mostly small and mostly slow. In order to win, he needs to have shrewd talent judgment and he needs to figure out how to distribute the talent as efficiently as possible. I think that his system does just that.

The lack of speed was really obvious on defense. They played a legit 3-3-5, with a lot of strange fronts and odd-angled blitzes. Whenever there were times they had to hunker down and stop the run, they were actually decent and had an important stop in the game on 3rd and 1. Georgia was playing spread and you could see that Rodriguez understood where to put his players. They almost always had 7 in the box and stacked them particularly in the middle of the field. When they got beaten, it was usually a matter of physical talent rather than bad positioning. With better athletes, the scheme would be even more impressive. If it's possible in a game when the defense gave up 35 points, I came away reassured. Browse their cfbstats page and you can't help but be impressed with their numbers having seen their players speed and size on that side of the ball.

The offensive side featured mostly plays where impeccable blocking led to big holes on astroturf: White and Slaton ran all day. But that's what I wanted to see. Georgia has plenty of big and fast guys that the smaller WV offensive line neutralized frequently. That allowed their deep set backs to pick through and find holes. I think if Manningham had gone to West Virginia, Rodriguez would have made him a running back. The faster you are, the closer he wants you to the ball on offense. I'm definitely going to the spring game.

Oh, and this was the game he authored a fake punt in order to cement the 38-35 victory. Late in the 4th quarter, his offense was stopped on their 48 with 1:45 left on the clock. The fake punt gets the first down and it's effectively game over. That was brilliant.

Well? Obviously a gigantic highlight is going to underline the best of a team, but even when Georgia was scoring on their defense, I thought they were getting their players where they should be. When watching Michigan this year, I often thought to myself, "How can this possibly work?" Sometimes it does anyway, but again: let's remember the Minnesota 2005 game. I just feel like maybe we can hope for a time when that weirdness is behind us. It's enough just having to deal with Tressel and his inordinately high winning percentage. But Appalachian State (aka THE HORROR)? Oregon? The Year of Infinite Pain? The Angry Michigan Safety Hating God? Michigan football of late has incited the spread of a fan-demic fatalism. Rich Rodriguez may just be the light.

What I really want to know is who made this happen and how? I really wasn't expecting competence after what had happened to this point. Maybe we should just conclude that things of this magnitude are always going to be strange and embarrassing. I think we're a strange and conflicted institution and a position in that hierarchy as important as head football coach is just going to make those odd filters evident. Put together and given some time, this is the outcome. I guess we can't be too mad, can we?

Quick Post On Bryan Hogan

In light of his performance tonight and actually seeing him up close, I'm going to offer a revised narrative, so to speak, regarding his stats. I did a fairly pessimistic post a while back and noted that his two USHL seasons were widely divergent and trended very negatively.

What I would guess now is that they were a function of his style in net. He's not exactly short, but he is short-er, particularly compared to Billy. He's also not nearly as broad in the shoulders as Billy and is probably on the slim side for his height. All that means is that he's got to move a lot and make a lot of deft and timely hand movements. That's the sort of thing that would tend to be high-variance as I see it. So he can be as On as he was tonight, but he can go Off for extended periods too. Nonetheless, he's instant improvement over Jakiel, who was seemingly immobile. For the record, we now have 2 real goalies, which is 2 more than we had last year. Woot!

PS Good to see Carl get back to borking it up out there.

Hockey Notes 11/30 - 12/1: Worst. State. Ever. (That means Ohio)

A somewhat disheartening weekend. We split against a team that, at least record wise, didn't seem to deserve it coming into the pair of games at Yost. After the fact and having seen them play with Palmer basically at his peak, they can be a better team than their record shows. But like just above .500. They don't have anyone that can finish from what I saw, though they'll remain tough on D if only because they're so big and they like to get everyone goal-side of the puck. It figures they'd save this effort for us. And it figures we'd put on a corresponding lackluster performance. I really really hate Ohio State. Onto game specific stuffs:

Game 1 Seriously disappointing effort on the attack. The crisp passing out of our own end and high-energy forechecking that's been there every game thus far was suddenly absent and only returned with a few minutes left in the second period. The first line and general defensive play were lacking, though both stepped it up in the third. Chad Kolarik, especially, has been playing with incredible skill on the puck right now. His second goal was magic and showed tremendous imagination. His intensity is very apparent right now. In the past, I think he had a rep for being somewhat mouthy, but right now he's internalizing it and playing with a good fire. But up until then, it was nothing but missed passes and frustration with OSU's physicality.

That's the conclusion I took from the game. We are definitely fast and give a lot of effort, but we're still not the biggest team. Ohio State decided to really pack it in and could take up enough space to get away with it. Our long passes to break the semi-trap (it wasn't a real trap I don't think...but what do I know?). I don't think there are a lot of teams who play that way among the very best teams, so it probably won't be that exploitable. We were seriously lackluster on faceoffs, which contributed further to our inability to maintain possession. But we still only lost by 1 and it took a really fluky Billy '06 type goal to beat us. I expected game 2 to be far less close and in our favor.

Game 2 Annoyingly, I missed the first period when we went up 3-0, so this is mostly thoughts after the game was more or less out of hand.

We played with far more effort and made sure that if we weren't able to maintain puck control, then neither would they. We still gave up chances thanks to poor decisions in the back. Quick at one point decided to take on 2 Buckeyes himself in front of his own goal and Llewellyn showed that he's definitely not a top 4 d-man right now. The latter had Palushaj absolutely livid, so much so that we could hear him scream, "What the f--- is he doing out there?!" after he came off the ice. But we still out-classed OSU and showed just why the Buckeyes aren't going to be able to beat teams consistently. They're content to give decent shots to guys like Porter and Kolarik and Pacioretty in order to keep them from breaking in and as good as Palmer can be, it means he's going to get tested a lot. He got beat badly early on and settled down to make some great saves and ended up with an average performance on the night.

I should talk about Pacioretty since he's starting to show how good he can be. He had 2 goals tonight and in general showed what he can do with his size and puck handling. I read the chat that Kolarik participated in for USCHO and I believe it was there that he mentioned the space that Patch opens up. I see what he means. His physical presence draws extra defenders and he makes such nice runs that he's constantly threating the defense and forcing them to collapse. It's telling that between the two games that despite some uneven effort and performance, the top line ended up +1 in both. All three play both ends so well that they get themselves out of ruts and eventually out-work and out-skill the opposition. I came away impressed with Matt Rust as well, who demonstrates similar traits and a willingness to hit.

Oh, a word about Hogan. Apparently he stopped a penalty shot tonight. I'm not that surprised. He has good instincts for the angles at which shots tend to come and is definitely athletic. One thing that Billy has done this year is started to make better use of positioning his size. Hogan isn't as tall as Sauer, but appears to have the quickness to compensate. He came up very big in the third when our effort yet again waned and the Buckeyes went on the attack to the tune of 15 saves on 16 shots in that period. The one he gave up in the period was roofed by Somma and emphasized his biggest problem: he didn't field the initial save cleanly and gave up a rebound which was passed out and led to the goal. There were a few other instances of it, but for the most part we came unscathed. Either way, you have to like the performance. It was flawed, but he still managed a 92.9 save pct.

That was the tenor for the whole weekend. We gave a lackluster effort, but even that showed how hard it is to beat us. Pretty much everything was going wrong and the margin was just 1. And we upped the effort a notch and came back to win 4-2. But why did we have to let up against them? Bloody hell.

Oh, and we miss Caporusso's face-off prowess. OSU really took us out of a lot of offensive sets that way, especially considering how often Palmer was forced to cover.

Scoutin': Ezeh and Graham, Part Deux

Unless I see something else watching the game, I'm pretty sure that our linebackers are still the biggest problem on this team's defense, so I'm going to keep looking there, in case they look like they're getting better. Winning the Illinois game means finally being able to see what this season can become. Pretty miraculous, really. But here we go. I think I'll use some more formal notation so that it's easier to read this time too. This still didn't turn out pretty, but I think there's stuff that might interest people there, so in it goes

1st Quarter,14:52 - We're in a 4-2 that shifts to a 3-3 when Illinois motions Mendenhall into the back field. Ezeh is on the weak side, Graham the strong. Graham has the hole and has to square up Weill to close the hole and can't. Ezeh gets lost in the weakside wash and it's up to our D-Line and safeties to bring down the back, which they do.

14:12 - The touchdown pass. The linebackers are largely irrelevant, since this is Warren thinking he has safety help after Englemon inched up toward the box. My guess is Warren heard the coverage wrong, but it's not like anyone was really beat here.

10:55 - Facing Singleback 3-wide TE, we're in a 4-2. The weak-side DE, BGraham, has taken a wide split, so we probably look 5-3-1-7 tech from top to bottom. Harrison edges in to cover the TE that motioned to create a new strong side. They zone block and a guard releases to both Ezeh, on the strong side, and Graham on the weak. Crable shoves both the TE and tackle into the backfield, giving Harrison a shot at Mendenhall. Meanwhile, Taylor has been moved backwards, but gets off his block and Jamison has sprinted down the line. All three converge, with Taylor making the most of it.

10:30 - We're in a 3-3-5 against their Shotgun 4-wide that looks more like a 5-1, with Crable and Ezeh on the edges coming on a blitz. Even though it's a WR screen, Ezeh almost makes it all the way to the QB, looking very fast. Graham is the 1 and drops into what I'd guess was a spy zone, looking QB all the way. He makes a slow-ish read and is 4th to the ball, after Harrison's made the play.

9:13 - 3rd and 19, Shotgun 4-wide and we're in a 4-2, with Ezeh lined up between the tackle-end gap and Graham on the short side edge, both showing blitz until Ezeh backs off. Graham blitzes, Ezeh drops into the short side flats. Graham speed rushes and beats the tackle. A guard and center miss cut blocks on this, so if Graham doesn't make this, it's going to be ugly anyway, but it looks nice nonetheless, more so considering it was our only actual sack of the game.

7:02 - 2-TE I Form and we've rolled up the short side corner, Warren, and stuck Crable on the far side to show a 6-2 with Ezeh and Graham and Adams also in the box. We aren't even close to thinking pass on this and the play's over before either LB can get to the ball, as Jamison gets the first penetration and ruins the intended hole, which both Ezeh and Graham have committed to. BGraham gets shoved aside opening a hole that Mendenhall heads toward. Adams closes as soon as the back commits and stones him, but both the LBs are basically out of the play.

6:25 - Same set for both teams, though the D-Line has less success and a hole is opened on the wide side of the line. Ezeh fills and takes on the FB, Weill and Adams comes in behind him to clean up, only Mendenhall cuts back behind the FB and into the pile and falls forward. Ezeh did pretty well on the FB block and was able to make the tackle along with half the defense, though Mendenhall falls forward. Encouraging, I'd say.

5:48 - Shotgun 5-wide on 3rd and 5 and we're in a 4-2 with Ezeh lined up on the wide side edge, showing 5-1. Adams comes up and shows blitz and gets all the way back to the middle of the field. Ezeh was stoned on his his rush and Graham covered the wide side slant. Juice throws a bad slant that hits the ground to the other side of the field.

1:17 - Shotgun 3-Wide TE against our 4-2-5 with Harrison moving up to the line, showing 5-2. Ezeh is playing wide-side, Graham short and it's option. Crable stands up, Harrison covers him a few yards off, Johnson beats the inside block and takes out Mendenhall, so Juice keeps and Crable takes him down at the LOS. Ezeh actually sliced through nicely and went to Mendenhall, though Graham got taken out by a guard. Again, it looks like Ezeh is showing something he wasn't against Purdue.

0:44 - Shotgun 4-Wide on 2nd and 9 and we're clearly in Cover 3, as Englemon has stepped up and both corners are giving big cushions. He blitzes, and everyone else drops. Graham takes the short flats and Ezeh drops down the center of the field and their wide out runs a hook in front of Warren. Englemon gets a hit on Juice who makes a good throw, but leaves them short of the first down. They recognized the defense and took what was there.

2nd Quarter, 15:00 - 2-TE I Form on third and short and we've got literally 10 in the box. Not exactly throwing us off there with the run, Zooker. It's basically a stalemate on the line and both LBs have to fight blocks. They run right at Ezeh and he fights well enough to make the tackle, though after the first down by a bit. Again, though, very encouraging. Things look slow still, but not nearly so much as before and he's really using his strength and speed now, instead of drifting.

PS MAX POLLOCK SIGHTING - He's like Banquo's ghost to the opposition. It's all over now, Juice.

14:39 - Shotgun 3-wide TE to our Nickel. Ezeh lines up on the wide side edge and Graham is left to handle the middle, which he does not do especially well on this zone read. Ezeh sprints at Juice, no longer with the ball, and really overruns his assignment here. The blitz may have been called, but he needs to read the play there, imo. Then again, Crable is waiting on the play right behind him. He might as well make a run at it. Slow down a bit though, Obi. Graham gets more than he can handle with a guard and the center. That means no one on Crable and 1-on-1 with our tackles. Taylor beats his and tries to slow down Mendenhall and even Graham makes a lunge at him. Enough efforts result him eventually falling down. I like Graham's effort here against 2 OLmen and it's fun to watch Obi sprinting his ass off.

14:03 - 3-wide I Form to our standard Nickel. Crable kills this by dodging both a pulling guard and a FB to make the tackle. Sweet play, but the LBs don't really matter here, though Graham was second on this tackle.

13:20 - Shotgun 4-wide to our 3-3-5. Graham is on the short side edge and Crable shows blitz up the middle, while Englemon and Harrison have stepped to LB level on the far side but in the box. We're showing 3-Deep, with Adams a ways back. We are in just that and Juice picks out Benn running a crossing route. For one, this demonstrates Juice's over-reliance on Benn, as he's got another receiver who's actually got first down yardage, is far more open and has a 1-on-1 with the safety. The other is that I don't like how obvious everything we do here is. I suppose some downs you have to do exactly what it looks like you're going to do, but the two times it's been obvious to me before the snap, the same thing has happened.

13:00 - Play annoyingly lost to a mostly irrelevant replay.

12:23 - Shotgun 4 Wide Zone Read against our Nickel. This does not go well. Guard and center release and seal both Ezeh and Graham to the outside, Crable is collapsed and Johnson is basically the only guy who can stop this before the safeties get there. He takes the RB and it's ruh roh from there. Blockers get out on basically everyone until Adams finally comes up and stops Juice. This was everything we ever feared, only it didn't go for 6 and emphasizes the fact that our LBs aren't playmakers right now.

11:55 - Shotgun 4-wide to our Nickel with Harrison rolled up to the LOS. We twist our tackles and Ezeh and Graham drop into coverage. Graham plays the flat, Ezeh gets a middle zone and is the one to run Juice out of bounds. Doesn't look super fast there, but was getting pulled and such, but he's also showing that step-slow decision time. Only a 2 yard scramble.

11:42 - 3-wide I Form to our 9-0-5 tech 3-3-5. We are all pass on 2nd and long despite their balance and they do indeed run. We send Ezeh up the middle who slices through and forces Weill to take him out. Both he and Johnson have a shot and Mendenhall as a result, but he gets away. Graham's actually not in, as Mouton has subbed him. The result's the same though, as a guard takes him out. We were kind of set up to fail here, but our athleticism, especially Ezeh's, gave us a shot here. Ultimately though, we don't take on blocks well and that puts Mendenhall into the secondary.

11:23 - Shotgun 4-wide to our 3-3-5. We rush four, play solid coverage and tackle after a 6 yard hitch. Can't complain much about that. Graham ran out to the flats for his RB and Ezeh roughed up the WR who came under him. Neither got the ball, but that's because they were well covered.

10:31 - Singleback 3-wide TE and a 4-2-5. The line gets pushed back and a pulling guard takes on Ezeh. Valiant effort, but Mendenhall gets through the hole. Graham held in his own hole until Mendenhall committed and the LOS had been moved too far for him to keep sliding down the line. Our tackles aren't forcing them to double, so they can kick out guards and centers on our linebackers. Most of the time, though, we beat the single blocking and slow the play up or stop it entirely. When we don't, the safeties are deep and they take the 10-15 yard gain. Taylor and Johnson are not two-gap tackles, though. Slocum might be.

10:08 - Shotgun 4-wide and nominal 3-3-5 with Jamison standing up (and looking kind of uncomfortable). Zone read that everyone reads to the RB immediately. Bad fake by Juice I guess, though normally he does that very well. Not that this helps anyway. This is basically the problem of Crable versus OT, which he loses badly as does the playside tackle, which means linemen taking everyone out and Dufrene trotting gently into the endzone. Can't really fault the LBs here, since they literally have no chance to get through this mass of humanity to the ball carrier.

8:01 - Shotgun 3-wide 2RB; Nickel. The exact opposite happens here, as both Graham and Ezeh beat their blocks to hold the zone read to a minimal gain. And we're back to being encouraging. Still a mixed bag, of course, but Ezeh especially made a nice move to cut through the muck and get to the ball carrier.

7:21 - 3-wide I Form; Nickel. Nominal (and weird looking) playfake to Mendenhall doesn't enrapture the linebackers and both slide down field looking for assignments. Ezeh recognizes that Juice is running and does a nice job holding him up and making the tackle. Jamison squashes Juice from behind making this look less like Ezeh's play than it was. He might not have fallen forward without Jamison's alacritous pounce.

6:41 - Shotgun 4-wide; Nickel. Zone read! We're set up for any obvious twist with Johnson playing slightly off the line and leaning toward the short side and Taylor up close and angling toward the wide. Sure enough, we twist and both guards release to the linebackers who are basically stuffed. Fortunately, they left Crable unblocked (as per usual in the zone read) and the twist works to perfection, making it a 3-on-2 that doesn't exactly pan out for the Illini. Good thing Juice isn't allowed to audible to a straight ahead run or something. This is the gamble that's more or less paid off pretty well for English. And I get why. We have athletes up front and English expects that that given 6 or so 1-on-1's, we can win 2 and stalemate 2 or 3, which is usually enough to stop the play for 4 yards or fewer. With Taylor, Johnson, Crable, BGraham and Jamison, he's got a good chance of being right. Now that Ezeh is starting to realize his potential, plus CGraham, a much better player of assignment football now, we are moving toward a very good run defense. To this point, we still haven't done anything stupid. That's why this hasn't reached '05 bad.

0:44 - Shotgun 4-wide; Nickel. Graham comes off the edge and gets overturned by the back. Ezeh is in a short zone in the flat, mostly useless because the back stayed in and everyone ran long routes. Not his fault though. Juice incomplete.

0:40 - Shotgun 4-wide; Nickel. It's a screen. Ezeh and Graham both show off a bit in the open field. Unblocked, Ezeh recognizes and attacks but fails to come up with the tackle because he didn't break down and BGraham is kind of in his way. Argh. But! Graham comes out of nowhere to take down Mendenhall by the legs. Ezeh appears to be in man here on Mendenhall, as he never takes a drop, whereas Graham drops immediately. This play really emphasizes the physical tools each brings to the table, but also shows Ezeh as juuuust unable to make the play (again). Still, this is the play recognition that was absent earlier in the year against such trickery. Ezeh was lead to it by his assignment and Graham recognized it of his own volition.

3rd Quarter, 11:46 - Shotgun 3-wide 2RB; Nickel. Zone Read. We twist, though I didn't see it coming this time, though the Illini apparently do. Graham has the quarterback and Ezeh has the RB according to their immediate reactions. Ezeh gets taken and turned out by a guard and Graham is in the muck on the backside. With no penetration from the tackles, we lose each battle up front here and it's into the secondary for Dufrene.

11:28, Shotgun 4-wide; Nickel. We line up showing twist. Instead straight rush and they fake the zone read. Ezeh and Graham stay with it and then start their drops. Juice throws and Ezeh tips the ball, but it lands right in Benn's hands anyway. Nice to see the active hands, but it's not like they recognized this exceptionally quick. With better drops, I don't think that pass is there. But expecting run against this team isn't the worst idea. On replay, it looks like this would have been behind Benn otherwise. Sigh.

11:11, 3-wide I Form; Nickel. Ezeh comes to the edge and we show a 5-1, with Harrison shading toward the middle of the field from his nickel spot. The call is sprint option toward Ezeh's edge. He shoots up the field and drills Juice, forcing the pitch. Crable has been running down the line and everyone else gets off their blocks well, including Graham, who beat a guard and likely could have had Mendenhall had Crable not pursued so well. Aside: I think the UFR has probably been unkind to Crable, because his pluses are really pluses that only he can make. He's been asked to be a DE in a 4-2 and he doesn't have the weight to play the position and he makes assignment mistakes occasionally, but his pluses almost always seem to set up the defense for a 3-and-out. Against a zone read and the option, there are plenty of plays where he comes in and they don't block him because normal DEs and outside LBs can't get where he can get to. Plus, he's great in pursuit. Ezeh looks good, but we are going to miss Crable, because no one has that speed at his weight and height.

10:31, Shotgun 4-wide motion to 2RB; 3-3-5. Crable and Ezeh show blitz off the edge and in the tackle-end gap respectively. We're probably in Cover 3, with Trent off, Englemon deep and shaded over Warren and hiss 7 yard cushion, with Adams in the middle. We send Graham and Harrison instead and I can't figure out the coverage. None of it matters because Willis drops the ball after a short hitch between the linebacker zones.

10:20 - Shotgun 4-wide; Nickel. Graham comes up the middle and we get pressure. Juice rolls out, but Ezeh has spied him, so he's forced to throw it away long.

7:31 - Shotgun 4-wide motion to 2RB; 3-3-5. Zone read to option. We play it straight and they only get one guard out, on Graham, who actually sidesteps and gets into the hole. Ezeh fills the other side but it's not to the RB. McGee keeps and gets stuffed badly by Harrison. Even if McGee had found his pitchman, Adams was there with him. You know what Illinois doesn't do enough of? Zone read to a throw. If the LBs are committing that hard, how are they not trying to throw slants and drags behind that, or hit the long ball again? One touchdown was enough?

7:02 - Shotgun 4-wide; 3-3-5. Ezeh and Graham are in coverage and we only bring 4. It's a screen, this time with Graham covering the RB and Ezeh dropping into coverage. Graham beats a block to get to Mendenball behind the line, but can't square up and make the tackle. Ezeh doesn't come on screen until Taylor is just about to make the tackle (see? we pursue from the DL very well) and I'm not sure why, since I can't see him. But Graham backed him up when he whiffed on the screen and Ezeh could not return the favor, despite the fact that I'm pretty sure it was the same coverage, just reversed. Blah. Just watched a replay. Ezeh was way too slow there.

6:21 - Shotgun 4-wide; 3-3-5 with Crable taking a wide split in an upright stance. Oh, this is the play where McGee just flat outruns Crable. Well, I can't tell what happens to either Chris or Obi, so commentary: McGee can't beat out Juice with that speed and supposed ability to throw? They need to make him a WR or something. Also, notice the difference between that 16 yard occasional burst and the constant death of the Texas Rose Bowl. Better schemes, for sure.

5:48 - 3-wide I Form; Nickel. First, I think Zook should run this formation more than that 4-wide Shotgun. If you have a good FB but only 1.5 WRs, why would you run out 4 and no FB on most plays? I say this because their G-C-G crush our interior and Graham has to take on a pulling guard. He does this fairly ably, but Mendenhall has jetted out of his stance (this is what I saw against Wisconsin). Also, there's a little counter action here from Mendenhall. Thus both Graham and Ezeh look very slow here and Mendenhall bursts into the secondary. Englemon goes for the legs and makes the tackle and we have still yet to see an off-to-the-races incident this game, largely due to our quality safety play. This is what the '05 defense was supposed to look like, imo. Except Massey would always get crushed and we had the worst safeties in division 1-A football. Taking away the home run is hugely frustrating in the college game, because there are so few quarterbacks accurate enough to consistently beat you short.

5:21 - Shotgun 4-wide motion to 2RB; Nickel. This goes from a pass look with Weill in the backfield to a pretty strong run when they motion back Mendenhall. Weill picks up Ezeh in the playside hole and Graham is stuck on the backside, because there was a hole to cover there plus the interior got eaten up by their G-C-G again. Mendenhall once again into the secondary where Englemon gets him for the second straight down. This basically is the I Form with a nice twist, especially so because Weill can actually catch pretty well. Why don't they run this more?

5:04 - Laziness. Bubble screen that Trent takes care of. How is there not a Benn Touch number around 10-15 for this team? He got 5 passes, no chances on jump balls, no intriguing formations, etc. They stuck him in the slot and constantly had to deal with a LB, a corner and a safety at pretty much all times. Not that I know of any, but Illini fans have to be a little bit pissed at Zook. Then again, when 7-5 looks like Eden and your coach is bringing in some of the best talent in the country, it's probably hard to generate a lot of dissent.

4:52 - Weill straight ahead. Play lost to a whizzing SportsCenter graphic. W00T!

4:25 - Shotgun 4-wide motion 2B; 3-3-5. Crable on the edge, so it's a nominal 3-3. That's happened a lot more than the stand-up DT, which has apparently lost favor. Oh and Thompson is in. It's a Zone Read Option dealie, but Juice gives to Mendenhall right away, having read Crable. This doesn't work so good, because Jamison has beaten his man and Thompson splits the two guards that came out on him. You know if he's capable of doing that regularly, he should be in on running downs.

0:08 - 2 TE I Form; 4-4? MAX POLLOCK! I dn. Mendenhall ahead for a few. They did this last time they were by their own 10.

4th Quarter, 15:00 - 3-wide I Form; Nickel. Ezeh comes over to the wide side edge and blitzes. Graham plays the DT-DE short side gap, which is large, since Taylor plays a 0-tech and the far side DE is 7-tech. So they have both an extra guard and a fullback and we took one of our LB's out of the play. With that kind of split, plus Ezeh on the edge, we have to be looking pass, right? But then Adams comes up into the box. I guess we're balanced, but I'm not sure (and this has happened a few times already but I don't always take note of the line technique) how Graham and Adams are supposed to deal with a guard and a fullback and Mendenhall with a head of steam (since he's in the I). The playside guard instead doubles down and Graham takes on the fullback. Adams has backside contain since he came up and Warren backed off into the Cover 3. So this is on Graham, but it's not like he's made a habit of beating blocks. I blame the playcall here, but it's more of a scissors beats rock thing than a perpetual issue...Oh damnit, they showed a replay. That would have made this so much easier. Okay, so another issue with this play is having Crable with his hand down. He's not going to beat anyone on run defense like that.

*Nothing worth commentary happens for four plays.*

13:38 - 3-wide I Form; 3-3-5. Harrison and Grahaam roll up on the edges and Crable and Ezeh step into the End-Tackle gaps showing a sort of 3-4. Crable blitzes hard and looks like he's going to make something happen, but falls and manages to take out Graham's edge blitz. It sort of doesn't matter, since it's a sprint option away from them. McGee keeps and Ezeh sorts through the OL and sticks him. Really nice play.

8:12 - Shotgun 3-wide 2RB; Nickel. It's a hand-off to Mendenhall who has Weill with him. Weill sticks Graham and Ezeh is playing a different gap.

Nothing else really happens wrt Ezeh and Graham, so I'm stopping now.

Learning Time

-Ezeh made considerable strides from last week, when he was slow and generally just taking up space. This week he was far more decisive and far more active as a result. He made some really impressive plays and will definitely earn some UFR pluses. He's still not fast enough and doesn't take on blocks that well, but this was a major leap. I think I said last week that it was like playing without a linebacker, but he's become a useful and active force at this point.

-Graham was pretty much the exact same. Made some plays using his speed, but takes on blocks worse than Ezeh (at least for one game). The important thing, really, is that neither are busting assignments at this point and are generally doing things right. They need to play within the system because they aren't playmakers and have plenty of flaws, but it's definite progress. Our linebackers are still the weak link, but it's not by nearly as much.

-Thompson got in once that I saw and maybe was in more. He made a great play in his single appearance, so I'm not sure what's up there. I get that Ezeh is the future, but splitting two guards to make a play is hard. He must have done something to find himself so suddenly in the doghouse, right? Maybe he just really sucked before? I thought that was true, but it's not like Ezeh lit the world on fire last week. I don't think the marginal benefit of using him is that great at this point anyway, so whatever.

-I really underestimated Illinois' line. We didn't really test their tackles too much because of the nature of the offense, but they were asked to take on Taylor and Johnson one-on-one and get into the second level and they did both pretty well all game, though it did help us out ultimately. I have no idea why they didn't use more I Form, especially since Weill is a weapon and should pretty much always be in. Really, though, if I felt like it I could rail on Zook's coaching for a while. I don't think he's any different than he was at Florida. [Name Redacted] forever more.

-Our safeties are as good as they've been since...'97? I say that hesitatingly, but it's been two games and I don't think either has really significantly screwed up in either game. That's the standard of excellence for Michigan safeties. Still, it gives us a lot of freedom in calling coverages, fronts and blitzes. We blitz more interestingly, stunt and twist more and show press coverage all because we feel safe from the home run. This secondary is definitely better than last year's and I hope Bedford's responsible.

-We gave up a decent number of yards showing and staying in Cover 3, especially when we bailed both corners, starting them well off the LOS before the snap. It doesn't let the corners help on the run (especially Trent, who was good), gives them screen options and other assorted irritants, but ultimately Juice couldn't regularly hit the underneath man so it was effective. McGee was really bad, too, especially as the game went on. Looked more and more lost. Being so obvious wasn't so great, but the coverage fit into our strategy. We limited their gains to 20 or less by holding back the safeties and figured we could beat them man-on-man in the trenches. Anytime they ran or screened and couldn't get more than 2 yards on that play, it meant an effective end to the drive because the Zookers passed so poorly.

-This really underscores how much Wisconsin's defense sucks at the moment.

-Crable should not be an option with his hand down. He gets crushed at the point of attack and isn't that great a pass rusher either. You make him from a good linebacker into a somewhat below average end every time that happens, though. OTOH, we want to get Crable into the game and it's not like we have enough reliable defensive backs to go to a 3-2-6 (bringing up Adams in run support). I bet we could have played him at Harrison's position and he'd do pretty capably. The biggest problem is that Jamison, BGraham and Crable all play the same position and are definitely talented. It means that BGraham doesn't see the field enough, though. A lot like '05 with Branch, really, with him moving around from DE to DT.

-This defense, plus a healthy Hart and Henne, the playcalling of late and a 2 game do-over and we actually would be a top 5 team.

Checkin' Oot Illinois

I watched the Illinois-Iowa game and took notes and I'm passing the savings on to yooooou!


Sale Starting 8PM Saturday!

Pass Defense: Jake Christiansen was clearly not that good, but shredded the Illinois pass defense any time his offensive line figured out their blocking schemes, which they are clearly not good at doing. They blitz all the time, presumably because they figure 6 and 7-man zones aren't going to do much better. Behind these blitzes they play soft zone, I'd guess cover 3. They do blitz with some ingenuity and they do have the athletes to get to the quarterback, but they can't usually get pressure with the front four without some kind of snafu up front. According to the stats, their big sack-prone dude is Will Davis, but he was not that big a factor. It's mostly just a blitz-to-get-pressure scheme. As far how it will affect Michigan, I'd say we'll probably give up the one big sack we usually give up where we let a man free for seemingly no reason and the rest will go okay-ish. As long as Chad has time, he's going to shred the Illini defense from what I saw.


Run Defense: Streaky is probably the best term. They don't tackle that well but it will be tough sledding at times. I really thought Leman would look like a world-beater, but he missed tackles and mis-read the zone often enough. A lot of Illinois' ability to contain the run was predicated on how little they were scared of Christiansen, especially on first down. Iowa started moving the ball effectively once they realized that they could throw. Even before that, Iowa didn't have a 3-and-out all day, which means that despite the fact that they ran on first down way too much, they were still making first downs with some consistency. Iowa ran most effectively near the beginning of the game and after they opened it up a bit late, meaning that Illinois has to be keyed in on the run to stop it effectively. When they don't they aren't disciplined enough to stop it regularly. If Hart's healthy and cutting at near peak levels, then I think we can get about 4.5 yards a pop. If not, we'll suffer because the missed tackles and vision won't be good enough to take advantage of their lack of discipline. Carlos might have the speed, but making the right cut is crucial against this run defense. I will start winding up my Fear-In-The-Box if Hart looks shaky.

Pass Offense: Aside from Benn and a few trick plays, they don't really have much. They aren't going to pass consistently if Purdue couldn't, especially because Painter is definitely a better thrower than Juice. They didn't trust him to throw at all, despite the fact that they weren't running all that effectively. Benn still ended up with 4 catches on 87 yards, with the longest plays resulting from play action and a scramble-laser from McGee to the sideline. If McGee comes in, he is a better passer than Juice, but is maybe somewhat more mobile than Curtis Painter. I'm not sure why they thought running the option with him was a good idea. He threw the pick at the end of the game to seal the defeat and an impressively bad throw it was. The announcers couldn't even determine who he was throwing to. I would summarize thusly: their best chance at making a big play is getting the ball to Benn, but they really don't have anyone who can get him the ball on a regular basis.

Run Offense: I'm still undecided on this one. Mendenhall didn't look nearly as explosive for whatever reason in this game and was held to a long of 15, though he still runs very tough and is really difficult to bring down. He's as good as Oregon's Stewart and is a pretty similar runner. It's telling that despite a long of 15 that he still managed 4.5 per carry. That's probably as best you can do on him and we should hope he only gets 15 carries all game, because the alternatives aren't better. That's right, I said it. My comment about Juice's running ability from the Wisconsin game is that he isn't that hard to bring down and doesn't seem to have that ability to make you miss that the upper echelon of runners has. He gets the yards he does because they get him to the outside on the option and he's got pretty good, but not great speed. He's like a tougher Drew Tate, maybe?

The thing of biggest note is that they rarely ran the zone-read. It was certainly in the single digits and probably less than five. They run a lot of true sprint and triple option from the shotgun, something far more convention and at least somewhat less worrisome.

On the whole, watching the Iowa game and the snippets of the Wisconsin game last week, I have to say that neither Mendenhall nor Juice have big time speed, evidenced by their inability to get big plays against Iowa, but also against Missouri and Penn State. If you can keep them from moving you forward at the point of attack and win in the trenches, you'll largely contain this offense because you'll be able to keep the safeties deep and prevent too many 20+ plays, which is exactly what this offense is geared around. Mendenhall will pretty much always get his and is the engine of the offense in much the same way Mike Hart is for us, but he only gets 18-19 carries a game and the rest are given to Juice and assorted other trickery. I think this is a key Zook mistake, as Mendenhall should be the backbone of a great run/play action offense and is instead disproportionately utilized for the sake of the big play. Regardless, we need to play with discipline and hang on to our assignments. We haven't proven we can do this, except for perhaps in the second half of the Northwestern game and I guess the Purdue game, though they didn't use misdirection at all for whatever reason.

So, can we do that? I don't know. If they have success early with the zone read, they'll come back to it, but it looks like Zook's in love with the actual regular old option. Granted, he's had plenty of success with it, but it's just not nearly as scary as the zone read. They'll probably forget about it if we can stop it early and after that we can probably reign in anything else they can throw at us. They just don't have that diverse a playbook and they'll throw more or less the same thing at us until we stop it. They may go off on us and rack up the yards, but it's not as likely as I thought it was. I'll ratchet down my Level of Desperate Fear from a 10 to a 7.5, but we really don't know what this defense can do against an offense determined to make it play disciplined and keep assignments and contain. Or rather, we do and it's been totally ugly thus far. But I mean come on. Iowa did it. We're better than Iowa, right? RIGHT?!?!

In Conclusion, Bork For Luck:


In Swedish Chef We Trust

Scouting Chris Graham

Okay, I guess maybe I could do this for Chris Graham too, especially considering how discomforting that Obi Ezeh one was, let's see if there's some hope.

In Game Notes
Same formatting as the last one, which is to say next to none. Sorry, but this takes forever as it is. Brian's commitment to the UFR for the last 3 seasons probably works out to something like 8 hours a week for 12 games per season for 3 seasons. Dang. We should probably buy more shirts.

-The first play of the game is lost to BTN's desire to use sexy graphics for way too long. What a credible network!

-Wow, that was encouraging. Shotgun handoff and Graham flies right to the hole and stuffs Dierking. Taylor also beat his man to finish it off and keep blockers off Graham. Very good start.

-Sent on an ineffectual blitz. Eh. And then he gets sealed by a guard, though it doesn't matter, thanks to Taylor pwnination.

-Doesn't look nearly as comfortable as Ezeh on edge blitzes. Thanks to the height disparity, I really don't think there's much chance he can beat a tackle and a running back would probably prove tough too.

-Another wow: gets around a guard on a screen to trip up Dorien Bryant before he can get going. Definitely a nice play.

-Yeah, Graham just isn't going to be able to beat a tackle off the edge. He's not fast enough to take a really wide stance and his reach is just not enough. He gives up like 8 inches to most tackles.

-Another play lost to show us OSU annihilating Kent State. How relevant.

-The Painter touchdown. As with Ezeh, Graham got neutralized by the OLman who released to take him on. Didn't matter, but demonstrates the difficulties of the 3-3-5 in short yardage situations. Generally, it works to our advantage because most OLmen can't beat our DLmen one on one with consistency, but if an opponent is able, there's a large gap between them and the safeties as a result. Still, this is Crable's fault.

-Offhand, I'd say this game looked remarkably similar to the 2006 Notre Dame game. We might think about making this a general rule of expectations: if your quarterback can't run and you're playing a spread, your OL, QB and receivers all have to be damn good to beat us.

-Once again, Graham can't beat an OL moving to the second level. It doesn't matter because our DL and safeties converge very ably. I think it's probably safe to conclude that English is using the 3-3-5 even though he knows his linebackers aren't good at shedding tackles. He has confidence in Adams, Englemon and Taylor.

-The fumble recovery. OLman slips to the second level and neutralizes Graham and we don't have significant penetration elsewhere so this goes for 12 until Graham, having escaped after the play passed him, and the secondary converge.

-Blitz up the middle and he's held a little bit after he gets by the center. Pretty blatant really. Still don't think he's going to be an effective blitzer if he has to take on anyone at all. Granted, that's part of the nature of the blitz: you're trying to cross the line with enough defenders to free someone up.

-Officially a trend: Graham still can't shed the blocking guard, but Englemon comes in and makes the play. It's clear we're committing our safeties to run-first priorities, even though they don't come up for 8 man fronts. Bodes well for Illinois, I think, if only because Adams and Englemon are tackling well.

-Also: Lithuania-France is on FSC right now and Henry and Ribery are fun to watch. Somehow it's 65 minutes in and France have yet to score.

-That one play where the poor Purdue RB gets mauled by our entire D-Line and Graham, who mimics the first wow play. Without blockers to defeat, he gets up a head of speed and tackles well. His size means he's never going to be a great linebacker though. He's been effective thus far though, considering what's been asked of him.

-I briefly wish Adams could have been a linebacker and Graham a safety but then remember how hideous that really would have been for the latter.

-He did better there with the guard by controlling the guards hands and keeping his head up. Also, I'd like to mention that they do really like Graham in pass coverage, which is the reason why Ezeh is playing in the middle. I'm pretty sure Graham is being used to cut off slants and the like, which we saw remarkably few off the entire game. If Graham were ineffective in his zone coverage, they would have tried far more, I would bet. I think he's part of our suddenly solid pass defense.

-Good blitz there. They thought Graham would be dropping into coverage, but he came and was able to slip past the guard enough to bother Painter on the throw. Nice call by English and I think it underscores my point: Purdue saw Graham primarily as a pass defender and didn't like throwing near him. Surprising, I know.

-75th minute and France still have yet to put one in against Lithuania. Not relevant, but I'm surprised and you should be too, damnit.

-Graham gets lost in the muck in a screen, but BGraham and Englemon converge. This is the essence of our screen/draw defense, imo. Our linebackers take on blocks so our smart DL and safeties can make the plays. It's bizarre, but effective.

-Whew, finally. Henry put one away and I think they said he's now France's all time leading goal scorer. Neat. Oh wow. Henry again in a flash. I love watching him play. And the whole crowd just shouted "Henry" in unison. Not sure how they timed that. Okay back to things you care about.

-Hmm. Chris was kind of in trouble there the whole way, since we were sending Crable who was lined up over the TE who ended up making the catch, plus they playfaked to the RB. He sort of misses the tackle, but it's a paper to our rock as Brian might say. He recognized it fairly ably, but the TE was beyond him at that point.

-BTN just showed a graphic that said Crable had 43 tackles total, 16 of which were for loss and 4.5 sacks. That's a ridiculous ratio of TFL:total. Now if only we can get him to keep contain. And then he makes his 17th TFL. As he goes, so goes this defense, perhaps?

-First time they've thrown in Graham's direction in a while and they actually had Lymon underneath. Graham was in man, watching the RB and Lymon ran right across his face. I'm pretty sure it isn't his responsibility, but that would have gone for a solid gain without the drop. Yeah, okay, looked again and Englemon got picked by Graham. Good route, bad hands.

-Good blitz by Graham up the middle. I think he's better than I was giving him credit for. He's fast enough to make an OLman miss. Purdue's OLmen anyway.

-And he also got off his block to interrupt that screen. In general, both LBs have played better has the game has gone on, I'd say. It'd be nice if they just played well in the first place, but these linebackers aren't David Harris.

-Nice pursuit by Graham out in to the flats on a long handoff. He definitely has some speed.

-First slant I've seen all game, thrown after Graham tipped that we were in man when Bryant motioned into the backfield. Not surprisingly, they went after Warren, who was in tight coverage.

-Graham once again mimics that first run stuff. With the legit four man front (BGraham-Taylor-Johnson-Jamison), Graham is a pretty able run stopper. He hits the hole and forms up pretty well (though he really needs to get his head up...it's dangerous and can lead to missed tackles). That may be why English was hesitant to go with the 3-3-5, though it doesn't explain why Crable was putting his hand down ever.

-Aaaand, Graham's out, Mouton's in, Notes over.

Conclusions

Tackling: Aside from that spearing tendency, he tackles pretty ably. No really notable missed tackles today, though he's certainly missed a few in the past. In this department, I was fairly encouraged.

Blitzing: Hmmm. He's got some speed and that rattles interior linemen enough that he can interrupt the pass, but he's never going to be a terror. He's just not big or fast enough to go off the edge though.

Run Defense: He showed some ability to defeat a block, though not much. If unblocked, though, he'll read the play properly and make the tackle. Granted, Purdue generally didn't make it hard to find the ball, something Tiller really ought to be criticized for. His game plan did not take advantage of weaknesses we've seen in the past from our defense. I digress. In any case, Graham was very solid and I really can't complain overly. He's really too short to be expected to shake off blocks from guards and tackles, whom he was seeing regularly in the game. He did very well in this department by and large. The big caveat is the lack of misdirection though.

In Coverage: This was the most surprising aspect of his game. Purdue rarely threw in his direction despite the fact that they normally throw a good number of drags and slants. Ezeh saw far more passes in his zone than Graham and I don't think this is a mistake. He's probably too short to be a good man-to-man matchup with the best TEs. Was it really his fault Quarless was so effective and ran open in the PSU game? I can't tell you. Graham could really prove to be a weapon in taking away the slant to Benn though. Strange development indeed.

In Sum: Graham played well, didn't make any huge mistakes, but is limited by his physical make-up, specifically his height. He's not as fast as I thought he'd be, but I'll trade the Unguided Missile for quietly effective, to be sure. I'm not convinced he's got those aaaaargh moments out of his system because this was just the one game, but it's encouraging that we might really only be one linebacker short (heh) going forward, instead of two. Given the quality of our safety play (?!?!), I think we might even be able to shut down the long TD pass/run.

This is exactly the defense everyone was hoping to see when Mike Hart was on the cover of SI before the season started. I have no idea how long it'll last, but I'm inclined to save this game forever on my computer just so I can remind myself that shitty defense isn't some kind of inevitability for this team.

Scouting Obi Ezeh

Having already watched what little of the Illinois-Wisconsin game that ESPN airs on it's 3am replays and considering the fact that Illinois runs a lot of spread option, it seems rational enough to conclude that our linebacker play is going to be especially critical in the upcoming game. So, I'm going to re-watch and take notes on Obi Ezeh's performance in the Purdue game. Kind of like Football Outsider's Every Play Counts column, I suppose. Caveat: this is one game of several he's played, so this is a somewhat incomplete data set.

In Game Notes
I'm going through this play by play and taking as-it-happens notes. I really don't feel like formatting quarter, time, down and distance, but the notes will correspond to chronologically sequenced events in the game. You'll probably be able to match it up with the UFR if it really matters to you when Brian puts it up tomorrow/Friday.

- He seems to recognize what's going on, but doesn't commit quickly with a good burst in the direction of the hole. Seems to be thinking and wants to make sure he's right.

-Long aside: Ugh. I just watched the Painter keeper for their first TD and Crable really needs to learn to keep contain. That play should have been stuffed. Totally irrelevant to the task at hand, but that was just bad. Maybe I should do one of these for the whole LB corps?

-On that play though, Ezeh was forced to take on a tackle and got totally taken out of the lane he was trying to fill (having committed to the running back). Painter didn't give, however, because Taylor neutralized his guard so well.

-The following drive, Purdue went with consecutive draws that forced Ezeh to fight off OLmen each time. Both times, he let them get to his pads and push him back. Another thing that seems to be coming up is that he's usually late to the play. Our D-Linemen are great in pursuit and very often make plays after the ballcarrier has past them. Ezeh is usually the 6th or 7th in the screen it seems like.

-Got quick to the sideline on a 2nd and 1 quick hitch, though. Seemed to be finally moving his legs quickly, having made a commitment to get to a place on the field.

-One thing that is important to note is that he's always on the field. Through the end of the first quarter, he's been in on every snap. The coaching staff doesn't see this as an experiment like the TE counter. Obi's part of the future.

-Um, this is a little bit speculative (ed: here's a good time to note I've never played organized football...weirdly, I don't think many of those in the Michigan Sports blogodome have), but he doesn't seem to drop with proper technique. Seems to me that you would want to keep your trunk over your knees so you can change directions quickly, but he usually ends up leaning his trunk in the direction he's going. This is could be why he ends up slow in pursuit and makes hesitant decisions: committing to a spot on the field for him means being able to defense only that spot.

-Another instance of such the next play: 3rd and 2 and Purdue goes shotgun draw. Ezeh got leaning in one direction and ended up planted on his left leg, away from the direction of the play. The guard that shot into the second level was able to keep him from coming up and making the play as a result. Also, I just checked the mgoblue box score and I guess Ezeh didn't make any solo tackles and had just 4 assists in the game. This is probably obvious by now but I'll just spell it out: Ezeh is not a playmaker at this point in his career.

-General Note: English is really mixing up his blitzes, showing blitz with Crable and the Graham, only to have them back off into coverage. It's definitely not his vanilla defense today.

-Woo! First real tackle of note. I guess he got an assist on this, but I think it was all Ezeh. Purdue shows 4 wide shotgun and motion Dorien Bryant in to show 2RB-3WR from the gun. Taylor and Johnson take on the playside guard and center and Ezeh fills in a hurry. He ends up overrunning a bit and Dierking spins a tad and falls forward for 4 yards. He didn't break down properly, but showed good instincts and nice speed.

-BTN camera guys zoom in and out some amount for each play for no apparent reason. On the play before, a running play, I would have been able to see Obi's drop were it a pass. This time, no such luck, as they've zoomed too far in on this pass from Painter. This is not high quality stuff, fellas. And then we miss the next play to watch a nondescript replay. Faaabulous.

-Seems like a fairly able blitzer from the edge. Looks far more confident, runs hard and fast and can beat an RB block. May ultimately end up playing Crable's position rather than David Harris', which I believe was the spring game talk anyway. Right now though, he's the Mike in this scheme.

-Hmm. Two straight plays as the Will, came off the edge again. Looks a lot more comfortable fighting with an OLman on those terms.

-Second play! Very similar to the first, though this was on 3rd and short. Quickly filled, didn't break down but managed to bring down the ball carrier. I think a better running back breaks this tackle, but it's nice to see Ezeh getting more comfortable attacking.

-Wow, even with that ridiculous 7-0-7 tech split on first down Purdue can't run. Gotta like our D-Line at this point. And then that nice play by Adams to converge and break up the pass to Bryant which Harrison eventually intercepts. Would it be so wrong of me to start to like Ron English as a coordinator again? Also: why is Harrison so comically unable to tackle when he inevitably gets to the QB on his blitzes? Is he just too small? Go for the legs, ankle biter!

-Solid drop and coverage of a drag underneath. Ezeh had him wrapped if Painter had delivered the ball properly.

-Yeesh. Ezeh pancaked by the tackle he lined up across from on a blitz. He tried to go low and the OT basically just fell on him. Inexperience showing right there, since that's probably just not ever going to work.

-Oops nevermind, he drew a holding penalty. Apparently it's not legal to drag him down with your hands and then fall on him. Ezeh's speed won out there, I guess? Okay: on fourth viewing, the OT was surprised by how quick Obi got on him and was forced into that hold. More evidence in favor of Ezeh as the new Crable, I suppose.

-Seriously, our D-Line pursues really well. Jamison just crushed a 2nd and 20 screen from behind. Maybe he's not the leet pass rusher we were hoping for, but he's definitely solid. As good as Biggs was last year?

-Woop, third play. Another Shotgun draw dealie where the guard comes out and attacks the second level. This time the guard kind of clumsily bounces of Ezeh and he has a chance to fill and limit it to 2 yards or so. Unfortunately, the little bump the guard gave kind of knocks his balance slightly and Haliburton was too big to bring down by himself at that point. Eh. Kind of disappointed by that, but it wasn't exactly that costly.

-I think I'm willing to conclude that Ezeh does close well on receivers running crosses and drags in front of him. He's got enough speed to run with those kinds of routes and they're relatively easy to recognize, since the receiver crosses your face.

Okay. Mouton, Patterson and Slocum are in. I hated those two touchdown drives and the onside kick crap, so I'm not putting myself through that anyway. There are probably some relevant plays still, since I'm pretty sure Ezeh was in until very nearly the end, but whatever. I'm not the most intrepid blogger, I guess.


Conclusions

Blitzing: He's fairly able when he lines up on the edge and he was also effective, nearly getting there and drawing that penalty. Looks pretty good. Up the middle, he displays that hesitance that he demonstrated often, though less and less as the game went on. I think it's a matter of comfort with him in this case and also generally; when he thinks he knows what to do, he goes hard and is a lot more effective.

Tackling: Doesn't seem to have good form or break down consistently, so it's hard to grade him well in this case, but I think this is also an inexperience issue. He doesn't fly around and spear everyone like Chris Graham, but is trying to do what he's been coached to do. This is one of the things that's really keeping him from making more plays.

Run Defense: He doesn't shed blockers right now, but does have the strength to do so. He recognizes fairly well, but he just can't get through the traffic to the ball quickly or sometimes at all. That point I made above, that he always seems like the 6th or 7th guy to come in the screen, remained true throughout. Part of this is our D-Line pursuing so well, but it's also just that he can't beat a guard with regularity. The reason for this inability is his slow decision making process. He's not reacting, he's thinking, I would say and consequently ends up on his heels instead of the balls of his feet. It's been said, but he lacks the experience that will get him comfortable in such situations. And, honestly, I prefer this to the 2005 Chris Graham Flying Ball of Suck Approach. If ever someone needed to give up on the force and switch back to his targeting computer, it was 2005 Chris Graham. And Ryan Mundy. And Stevie Brown. And Insert Michigan Safety Here. It means that he doesn't run himself out of plays and at least provides an obstacle for the ball carrier, even if he's not a threat to make the tackle. Not optimal, obviously, but it could be much worse.

In Coverage: Like most Michigan linebackers playing zone, he isn't active or anticipatory on anything behind him, but has the speed to get in the way and make tackles. This usually means him being the second guy in the picture while Jamar Adams or Engelmon make a play on the ball. As mentioned, he's pretty solid against the stuff he can see, so that's good.

In Sum: I saw flashes, but right now he's a guy who's a second or two behind everything. I don't think he played linebacker in high school (rivals says "Lifelong running back who will likely make the move to defense in college" and scout says he had 35 tackles and 12 sacks his senior year, which has to make him a DLman) and it shows. When given things he feels comfortable with, you see him really get aggressive and he looks to make plays. His most effective spot on the field right now is as an edge rusher which I'm sure is the effect of having played a similar spot in high school.

Considering he's seeing playing time as a redshirt freshman, you have to like his chances in the long run, but I'm doing this because we have Illinois on Saturday. We need to bottle up Le Juice and Mendenhall and that means quick reads and sure tackling. Ezeh could very possibly be the cause of some sizable gains on Saturday and I wonder if perhaps Thompson wouldn't be a more effective option? The coaches must really be down on something he did though, since you don't pass up an upperclassman for a redshirt freshman at linebacker unless the former option isn't really one. Or he did something wrong? I don't know, but I can't imagine we'd see Thompson after Ezeh got literally every snap I saw. Regardless, I would bet we'll see Adams move up in the box to help compensate. Hopefully this still means bracketing Benn with Trent and Engelmon. He scares me too.

Live-ish Game Notes: Minnesota vs. Michigan, Icebreaker Tournament

I didn't catch the first period because I couldn't corral the tv from my roommates, but now we're good. I wasn't at all surprised to pick this thing up with us down 2-0. We haven't beaten Minny since I've been a fan and usually lose in really ugly fashion.

So? Well, we got here by beating BC, which surprised the hell out of me. Somewhat typically, we gave up a two goal lead in the third, though we actually won it in OT. The box score (it's on a pdf from the mgoblue site) is encouraging and underlines especially that the Hagelin line looks to be dynamite. Which, despite the ridiculous amount of research I did on Carl suggesting that he had a good chance to be successful right away, I would never have guessed. Bork! to my pessimism.

Still though, Minnesota.

What I've seen since typing this intro 14:00 to about 4:00 of the second. We look slower and smaller than Minnesota, which isn't fair, but that's how they play everybody. The only reason we're in it is because we're as WCHB mentions "scrappier", which is messing with the rhythm of Minny's offense. Sauer's been decent so far, but I cringe every time the puck goes on goal.

Wheeler is ridiculous. He looks like if you put JMFJ at forward. Big and fast, yet deft. Not cool. He drew a penalty from Summers just being big and fast.

Damnit. Pacioretty just doesn't have that TJ body/puck control right now. He had a one-on-one and looked fast, but didn't seem to have an idea of what he wanted to do with the puck. He decided to fill the slot to let someone come down the middle for a pass, but couldn't make the quick stop and then mishandled the pass. I saw TJ pull off a similar move with some regularity, so that bit of stumbling stood out.

This issue goes back to that whole "the first line played like ass last night and ended up -2 for the night". That line doesn't seem to have a distributor and really made itself obvious on a really bad looking power play led by Pacioretty and Porter. I hesitate to take Caporusso off the second line, though, because it's been such an effective line thus far. Not until Rust or Winnett look like they can take over.

Back in the third.

Third Damnit. What an awful way to start. Flynn beat two of us in the corners and then Billy lost sight of the puck and got beat short side after Flynn circled in. They're just bigger and faster, which isn't that surprising considering how many freshmen we're fielding. 3-1.

...And Kampfer just put in a scrum. Sweet. 3-2.

We're in this because we're limiting Minnesota's shots so far, but it looks like that might be at an end. The pace has really picked up. In general, watching them makes me pessimistic about our chances, just because they're talent advantage is so obvious.

That said, Carl's got great speed. And did that TJ-I'm-Just-Taking-It-All-By-Myself-Oops-Now-Behind-The-Net-Oops
-I-Cant-Beat-The-Whole-Team. He is my new hockey man crush.

Oh hell, Billy. Right in front of you, not even that blocked. Er. Okay, on replay I don't know how he could have seen that and then even saved it. It was glove side upper corner. But damnit all. We've out shot them (at 14:00) 33-21 so far.

Ugh. Finishing is going to be a problem on this team this year.

Our powerplay is uninspiring. We'll get a lot of them because we're fast, but that's the one thing that's looked worse and worse since freshman year with Tambellini. I miss Tambs. Glad he's getting some time with the Rangers. (Oops, I guess I mean Isles. And not really that much it turns out. I dunno. I caught a random Rangers-Islanders game on Versus and I thought I saw his name on a Rangers jersey.)

WOOO! GOAL! Honestly, if it wasn't for Minnesota's defensive lapses, we would be getting beat down. But that was a nice finish by Rust and considering my recent "oh finishing problems" complaint, it's good to see.

We've had an inordinate number of stumbles and slips and mishandlings. Early season slip ups I hope. But it seems like it's mostly affecting the first line. They do not pass well together either.

Damn, nice hit on Wheeler by Winnett.

Dude, Miller spotting! Where has he been this game? I haven't even heard his name called. It seems like he and Turnbull have been totally absent. Probably because they don't have the speed to keep up? I don't know. Considering he's got the "A" I'd like to see him hitting or something at least.

Oh there's Miller again. Losing the puck.

Damnit. Are you too good for your home, puck?

Oh shit. 2:01 to play and Rust takes down some damn ass Minnesota forward in aa choke slam manner. It is called "holding". This is pretty much it.

We made Frazee cover for a face in their end. We can pull him now, not that it's exactly an advantage or anything, but that's better than it was. It'll probably end 5-3, but I'm glad we drew the opportunity and really have scrapped, as mentioned.

The Face We won it. Ah damnit. Shot got blocked...Last little rush...and...scrum...and??!

Damnit. Looks like Frazee covered. Another face with 6 seconds.

Another Face It's outside the zone, so we're basically screwed. Summers with the last second slapper and it gets by Frazee, but isn't on goal. That's the last gasp, but that's as tough as we've played Minnesota that I've seen in a while.

Summary!
I think if I could take off my Terrified Of Minnesota filter, you'd likely see that we did better than my commentary might lend you to believe. These two games are cause for cautious optimism. These are two of the best teams in the nation and we ended the weekend with an even goal differential, 8-8, and played (aside from Rust's really dumb penalty) more or less mental mistake-free hockey. Physical miscues like misplaying the puck and slipping and such were frequent but I think that's the sort of thing that gets ironed out as the season goes on and the freshman get used to the level of play.

The story though, ultimately, is that we once again limited the number of shots the opposition got on goal and Billy couldn't come up big. Or really at all for that matter. 4 goals on 22 shots following last night's 3 goals on 22. The way we're limiting shots and getting our own, Billy only needs to manage about 88% a night and that's not happening. How many games did we play last year when we decisively outshot the opposition only to lose because Billy couldn't come up with a few more saves? This is going to be a similarly frustrating year, but it may not be the freshmen responsible for it as much as we thought.

Okay, so the other story has to be, as I've already mentioned, is the first line play. Not cohesive, few passes in the offensive zone and they end after one of the three beats his defender to some degree and gets off a shot. It's rarely between the circles and the other two don't usually follow and crash. Pacioretty had 8 shots, Porter had 4 and Kolarik had 10. That's almost half of the team's shots. I caught about 2/3 of the game and none of the ones I saw were good looks. The first line can't go 0/22. That's a recipe for a loss.

Except we were "scrappy," compliments primarily of the freshmen, who played with a lot of speed and energy. I couldn't keep up with the line changes, which will probably be one of our strengths: the talent drop-off between lines this year isn't so great, so we'll see a far more even distribution of minutes this year. We'll be able to skate hard and fast and switch to a fresh line. It was a solid strategy against a bigger and faster, but certainly Wheeler-Okposo oriented, Minnesota team. And scrappy apparently is good and not the hockey version of "grindy"...for non-White Sox fans, that's running into walls and being tough and beating out double plays while hitting .250/.300/.350. Scrappy here causes turnovers and scores garbage goals, things that show up in a stat line and lead to a positive goal differential. No I'm not bitter okay I'm a little bitter. We put away two garbage goals and got a breakaway out of winning a loose puck. I don't know if we even had a nice looking chance that I can recall, but this team really does play good team defense.

Basically: I was terrified because Sauer was back there, but the box score for the tournament is revealing: 75-44 in our favor on shots, 8-8 even on goals. That's not to sa-

Ahem. Too wordy? Dude. Fiiiiine. One last thing:




Sigh.

Looking Too Far Ahead: Wisconsin vs. Illinois

We've got 4 opponents left that can beat us at this point: Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue and OSU. Oh yeah, and State. And anyone with a pulse that we overlook. Still! I watched bits and pieces of Wisconsin-MSU last week and saw that Wisconsin was remarkably weak in their front seven. Yeah, they could get a pass rush, but it really seemed like State could run, even with Caulcrick, right at Wisconsin. So going into this game, I was looking to see if that was State being good or Wisconsin being bad.

The game stats pretty much tell the story for Wisconsin's front 7. 6.6 per carry, 1 sack recorded in 19 chances. I'm going through the game to pick up the nuances, but it's pretty clear why Wisconsin lost this game. They pretty much deserved to.

Also, I'm going by the ESPN 3 AM version, which is way cut down and so the notation will refer to what I see on the TV, rather than each team's actual first, second or whatever drive. Annoying, but this is a Cliff Notes version of game analysis, a 3 out of 10 where 10 is UFR.

Illinois, 15:00 : Nick Hayden basically ruins this drive by himself, but the run by Mendenhall foreshadows the doom to come.

Wisconsin, 12:30: Donovan both makes and kills this drive. He uses his legs to get space and make a throw to an open Beckum early and then throws a slant too far in front of his wide receiver who gets lit up by an on-coming Illini safety/lb(notsurereally)thing. PJ Hill appears to be what he always has been: a fatty.

Note: It's at this point the telecast becomes just like ESPN's poker coverage. Big Slick. Aces. All In. Player Ousted. Repeat. Thus, the formatting and focus of this intrepid slips as this version of the game becomes totally annoying. The aforementioned nuances are obviously impossible to capture. So like leprechauns are they.

Aaaand we're back. It's that pitch to Mendenhall for a TD that was all over Sports Center when I saw it. Apparently that was a 2nd and 5 at the Wisky 32, according to Yahoo's box score. Also: Mendenhall already had a 26 yard run earlier that drive. That means his first three rushes went for 8, 26 and 32. You might think to yourself, "Oh, so he got his yards out of the way early. It was probably not so ridiculous the rest of the way." NSFMF. Mendenhall averaged almost 6 a carry thereafter.

This is also notable because [Name Redacted] has been on the scene and recruiting since 2005, which means he's got just 3 recruiting classes before Turner's recruits. That means any talented offensive linemen are at best true juniors. This is pretty unlikely to be anything more than an above average unit, and even that isn't especially likely either, but they are destroying Wisconsin up front.

Illinois, 11:45: Typical (from what I saw which is considerably little, ed.) Mendenhall run as he doesn't get touched until 3 yards after the LOS. This just after Juice Williams shows off his rocket on a slant and Benn shows off why he's the next Calvin Johnson. This team is officially scary. Then they self-destruct with a botched option and kick a 50 yard field goal.

...This field goal actually underlines what might be a decisive factor in the decided lack of [Name Redacted]-ness witnessed thus far: I would be willing to bet that their special teams bail them out of some of their would be screw ups. Fuck up the option and leave yourself with a 4th and 8 on the 33? Oops, time to punt oh wait we can make that FG. Even if that's NOT the mathematically correct decision, it's still a net gain when a [Name Redacted]-sized millstone hangs around the program's corn fed neck. That might have been a disastrous go-for-it OR a turdlicious punt from the 33. And then Benn is a threat to go the distance all the time. Such developments are worth significant points per game. Going from below replacement level to average, so to speak, is probably a bigger gap than average to above average.

7:47 left in the second, the Illini go play fake and Juice sits back for days scanning the field, overthrows Benn and manages to drop it in his fullback's hands for a 31 yard gain.

...Seriously, it's like Wisconsin doesn't even have a front four. It's weird, because you'd think they'd counter with some blitzing at some point, since Illinois has what is likely a very great talent disparity. You have to commit 2 defenders each play to Mendenhall and Juice and bracket Benn. After that, you've got 7 players that should be looking to maim the quarterback at all times. With as good a secondary as Wisconsin is supposed to have, this should not be so hard, especially for Bielema, who knows how to coach defense.

There's probably more to it than I'm thinking. Annoyingly, I don't think they've run more than 10 plays so far on this particular late night version. So I'm not getting the whole story. But whatever, Illinois scored 17 points in 5 possessions and Wisconsin has a field goal in the same span.

More commercials. Simmons' Cousin Sal just made Sasquatch step in his own doo doo. Something about Wisconsin being something.


Great, we're coming back 5 seconds before the half ends. What the hell nothing happened. And another commercial. It's been 1.25 hrs and, I've seen like 10 total offensive plays, plus some punting and kicking. There's 45 minutes left in this broadcast and I might have to cut this short if it remains this impossible to watch. And they stopped the ads just long enough to tell me they were going to have some more ads. They obviously expect no one to watch this. Even anyone flipping through the channels wouldn't ever stop to watch, because it's been more or less constantly on commercial. This is stupid.

And we're back. Wisconsin driving at about the 12 minute mark in the 3rd.

...Beckum is good. He can do spin moves.

...Martez Wilson is faaaaast. They've got him at outside linebacker and he just ran down Tyler Donovan with some ridiculous closing speed.

...That said, their linebackers and safeties don't appear to drop well in coverage and are intensely run-oriented. They stare at the running back to make sure he's not going anywhere long after it's clear he's not and then drop. Also possible: they're spying with both LBs in nickel. Seems unlikely since Donovan isn't that fast and PJ Hill can outrun the other backup linebackers he beat out to start at RB.

And we're back at about the 10 minute mark, Illinois driving:

...Juice just took an option keeper untouched until down like 20 yards later. Hmmm. It didn't look to me like he had an extra gear in terms of speed or elusiveness. He will be a great college runner and could still very well turn into Troy Smith I suppose. In terms of flat skills, I'd grade both his arm and speed higher than TS, which probably sounds like heresy, but hey, I don't have a stopwatch or anything. And: obviously, reading a defense is a big part of all this.

...Mendenhall gets up to speed in a huge hurry. I would be so surprised if he doesn't break one on us. A really good back.

...Ikeguonwu stones Juice on 1st and Goal and pretty much reaffirms what I said before: Juice doesn't have ridiculous moves nor speed. He's not Vince Young or Mike Vick. That might seem like little consolation, but it's not the point. I'm just trying to set a ceiling/floor.

...Seriously, Mendenhall accelerates so damn quickly. By the time he gets to the line of scrimmage, he's got such a head of speed that, in the very least, he falls forward. It makes linebackers look reluctant to tackle and slow to fill. I haven't seen him have to really slice through a non-existent hole, but it's clear that, aside from UofI's line dominance, Mendenhall is a back to fear.

Now it's 24-13 with 3:30 or so left in the 3rd. Wisconsin Driving. This is so jarring. Actually, this is exactly how ESPN televises poker. ALL IN! BIG SLICK! NORMAN CHAD IS FUNNAY! COOOOMMMMMMMMMERCCCIIIIIIIIIIALS. Come on!

Wisconsin has it down to goal to go and I was too busy using all caps to watch how they did it. Hill stoned on 2nd, makes it on 3rd. I've learned nothing. This is starting to seem futile.

...Wisconsin goes for 2 and Donovan runs a shitty option. He's shifty, but not fast. He breaks tackles, but can't outrun athletic linebackers. Score remains 19-24. Apparently this means both teams will score a touchdown in the fourth and the game will end. I will probably see 3 plays each from the scoring drives, plus the final chance Wisconsin has. This is all Norman Chad's fault.

Wow. I got to see 2 plays from the Illinois scoring drive. Oh wait, now here comes the extra point. I really thought it would be 3, not including the XP. I am sad. This has been so annoyingly edited. And a commercial.

...Just checking the drive summaries, it turns out that Illinois scored on 5 of their 10 actual drives (they finished the game with the ball, but that should hardly count), with 4 TDs and 1 FG. Basically, they kicked Wisconsin's ass. I haven't been able to make conclusions about Juice's throwing ability, but it hardly matters, since they averaged more than a first down every two carries. Two consecutive weeks of getting run over by Not Ohio State in the Big Ten is a bad sign and considering how much Wisconsin struggled against The Citadel, I don't see how this gets fixed any time soon.

Oh, Wisconsin's drive. A shitty run and an incomplete and probably ill advised deep out make it 3rd and 13 with 4:13 to play. Bielema runs Hill for 5 yards and makes it 4th and 8 on his own 32. Dang. At least he knew what was what.

Donovan to one of infinity tight ends Wisconsin always has. This one's not Beckum. Just a fly down the middle of the field. He beats their reluctant-to-drop LBs and it's first down.

Beckum saves an interception with an Avantian catch over the middle.

...Donovan is definitely slippery. He did that reverse turn that quarterbacks do when they feel pressure from the blind side and escaped two Illinois blitzers and threw a line drive away just in front of a third.

Wisky is bailed out by a sketchy roughing the passer. Wisky 2nd and 10 at the 22.

Damn. Beckum sa